How will fuel prices affect development in Chatham County

[Analyst]

Many in the real estate and home builder community do not yet realize the paradigm shift that has occurred recently as oil hit $140/barrel and gas marches on to $5 per gallon.  When I got my drivers license in 1962 gas was $0.25 per gallon and in a gas war it would drop to $0.18/gallon.  Diesel was also about $0.18  and the Interstate Highway system was under construction creating the interstate trucking business. Further the suburbs were built on both cheap gas and free interstate highways.  We also will now see a restoration of rail transportation for both freight and passengers in coming years at the expense of an unsustainable interstate trucking industry. 

THE DAYS OF CHEAP GAS AND DIESEL ARE OVER AND WILL NEVER RETURN.

Today the stock market dropped 358 points as oil hit $140 per barrel.   Though not Chatham centric but predictive of the future of Chatham the NY Times describes the suburban problem of Denver, CO see http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/25/business/25exurbs.html?scp=1&sq=denver+high+gas+prices&st=nyt where the far out suburbs are seeing significant declines in property values as the inner suburbs maintain or increase there value.

With $4 going to $5  gas Chatham and Johnston Counties are no longer the developer's paradise.  Infill of urban centers with public transportation will be the new areas for development. Communities like Charlotte that embraced public light rail transportation will see nodes of high density development around rail terminals and continued expansion where it should be.

It is time for all to adjust to the future and it will not be easy for our commuter worker population. It will take very creative leadership to deal with these future problems.  UNC and UNC Hospitals have long counted on cheap gas and nearby rural counties to provide inexpensive housing for its lower income support staff.  The increasing cost of commuting will be a major challenge for the University and the Hospital to staff such positions as commuting cost take an ever increasing bit out of the workers income.  I hope that University and the political leadership in the area are ready with creative solutions to their very imminent human problem before them.

[WolfpackFan]

Many in the real estate and home builder community do not yet realize the paradigm shift that has occurred recently as oil hit $140/barrel and gas marches on to $5 per gallon.  When I got my drivers license in 1962 gas was $0.25 per gallon and in a gas war it would drop to $0.18/gallon.  Diesel was also about $0.18  and the Interstate Highway system was under construction creating the interstate trucking business. Further the suburbs were built on both cheap gas and free interstate highways.  We also will now see a restoration of rail transportation for both freight and passengers in coming years at the expense of an unsustainable interstate trucking industry. 

THE DAYS OF CHEAP GAS AND DIESEL ARE OVER AND WILL NEVER RETURN.

Today the stock market dropped 358 points as oil hit $140 per barrel.   Though not Chatham centric but predictive of the future of Chatham the NY Times describes the suburban problem of Denver, CO see http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/25/business/25exurbs.html?scp=1&sq=denver+high+gas+prices&st=nyt where the far out suburbs are seeing significant declines in property values as the inner suburbs maintain or increase there value.

With $4 going to $5  gas Chatham and Johnston Counties are no longer the developer's paradise.  Infill of urban centers with public transportation will be the new areas for development. Communities like Charlotte that embraced public light rail transportation will see nodes of high density development around rail terminals and continued expansion where it should be.

It is time for all to adjust to the future and it will not be easy for our commuter worker population. It will take very creative leadership to deal with these future problems.  UNC and UNC Hospitals have long counted on cheap gas and nearby rural counties to provide inexpensive housing for its lower income support staff.  The increasing cost of commuting will be a major challenge for the University and the Hospital to staff such positions as commuting cost take an ever increasing bit out of the workers income.  I hope that University and the political leadership in the area are ready with creative solutions to their very imminent human problem before them.

Are you saying that there is not a need for a moratorium, because people will stop building "out in the sticks"?

[dkemom2]

I'm hoping the Board of Ed is returning to their numbers before they build schools that may sit half empty.

Will that be the case in Siler with the brand new Virginia Cross.

Northwoods numbers are dropping.  Harrison didn't reach their predicted population this year either.

The kids simply aren't here like the OR-ED study said they would be.

[VAHeel]

and thank goodness for that!  I doubt it's permanent, though.  Chatham is a great place to live and the word is out.  We may have gotten a little breathing room, but I hope that doesn't mean we think we can relax completely! 

We still need new schools, we still need to update and maintain the ones we have.

[WolfpackFan]

I'm hoping the Board of Ed is returning to their numbers before they build schools that may sit half empty.

Will that be the case in Siler with the brand new Virginia Cross.

Northwoods numbers are dropping.  Harrison didn't reach their predicted population this year either.

The kids simply aren't here like the OR-ED study said they would be.

Are the illegal immigration crackdowns having any effect on school numbers?

[dkemom2]

I'm not sure those numbers will be known until school starts.

It's hard to get illegals to understand the importance of withdrawing their kids from school when they leave.

[Stargazer]

Even if the illegals have not officially withdrawn, it has been reported that many have left
the county - especially since the Pilgrim's Pride closing.  According to this week's Chatham
News both the Hispanic Liasion and the Siler City Police Dept. have stated this.  Certainly
this fact, the mortgage crisis, and the price of gas will impact on the number of people
moving into the county.  Surely the Board of education will take this into consideration
and modify their building program if necessary.  If not, they're not too smart!

Thank you Analyst for your thoughtful post.

[munn5]

I spoke to someone at the central office on Tuesday about the schools in Siler City. She said they had not seen a significant change in number for next year yet, but they are monitoring the situation.

There are no building plans for the west side of the county (where the plants have closed) at this time. (Virginia Cross opened last year, and was built before the latest couple of closings - you can't predict that.)

[Silk_Hope]

Siler City is definitely not as busy as it has been in the past. Driving through town the other night is was very quiet, not many cars on the road, store parking lots empty and a lot of house for sale.

[Analyst]

Wofie, does not yet understand the paradigm shift either.  It is time for the new urbanization as workers move close to their work or close to public transit so they don't have to pay the high gas costs. It has nothing to do with "the sticks" (his derogatory term) but just how much it costs you to get to work and what your net income is and what you have left over.  I suspect that both UNC and UNC Hospitals are going to have major problems in staffing non-faculty support personnel who will no longer be able to make ends meet because of the high costs of commuting. Further, it will be a problem for entry level faculty in Arts and Sciences in the non-sciences that pays traditionally much below Medicine and the Hard Sciences and who can't now live in Chapel Hill. The paradigm has shifted and many have not understand the full implications of the shift and they are likely to be run over by it and then wonder what happened to them, Wolfie included.
A

[WolfpackFan]

Wofie, does not yet understand the paradigm shift either.  It is time for the new urbanization as workers move close to their work or close to public transit so they don't have to pay the high gas costs. It has nothing to do with "the sticks" (his derogatory term) but just how much it costs you to get to work and what your net income is and what you have left over.  I suspect that both UNC and UNC Hospitals are going to have major problems in staffing non-faculty support personnel who will no longer be able to make ends meet because of the high costs of commuting. Further, it will be a problem for entry level faculty in Arts and Sciences in the non-sciences that pays traditionally much below Medicine and the Hard Sciences and who can't now live in Chapel Hill. The paradigm has shifted and many have not understand the full implications of the shift and they are likely to be run over by it and then wonder what happened to them, Wolfie included.
A

The only thing I don't understand is your first sentence.  I am agreeing with you in a round about way.  "Out in the sticks" is not derogatory, at least where I come from.  It simply denotes being outside of the city proper and such.  I think gas prices are going to have a profound impact on how we do things, esp., if they continue to stay this high or get higher.  Lower paying jobs will see the biggest, initial impact, kind of like school teacher situation in CA.  I think we are several years away from this shift.  One of the reasons being that current housing market will not allow current home owners to sell and move back to the city.  So to achieve this shift, gas prices will have to remain high, and the housing market will have to recover enough to let people move.  Or we will have to wait for the new generation to emerge from school and such.  Either way, it might be time for some of our up and comers to revalute those art history degrees.

I work in Hard Sciences, so I will not get run over

PS.  I have missed your condenscending I know best post though.  Welcome back.

[Analyst]

Wolfie, The article about Denver had folks trapped in the far suburbs where the greatest drop in home values occurred and who could not sell without taking a substantial loss but still are caught with the high price of propane for heating, which is significant in Colorado and coupled with the high cost of gas for shopping for necessities or commuting if still working.  Similar to those in Denver suburbs are those who work in Chapel Hill at UNC and commute from Lee and Chatham Counties. Some of which were my former employees at UNC Hospitals.

The couple interviewed in the Denver suburbs as I remember where retired but not immune from cost pressures of energy being on a fixed income.  Such circumstances can only last so long and then foreclosure happens, which I know you understand and movement to a smaller and less energy requiring living arrangement thus giving rise to greatest reduction in home values in those properties farthest from the center of Denver.  For those working in support jobs at UNC, UNC Hospitals and RTP the cost of gas for commuting is even more problematic and  in their case those farthest from RTP, UNC and NCSU are in the greatest trouble. The cost of gas shifts the paradigm for all and its not going to get cheaper.
A

[integrityticket]

Both of you fail to consider that folks will shift to smaller more efficient vehicles. LArger SUVs will be replaced by smaller cross-ver vehicles. The Ford Expedition is probably a doomed dinasaur of a vehicle.

You also overlook the possibility of this being a bubble and if it bursts costs will come more into line. The proposal to produce and refine more of our own oil will also help.

Getting back to chathamcentricity, Goodnight has the potential to do some interesting things with his 3,000+ acres south of Pittsboro by developing a multi-use environment. It has the potential of being a place where you could work, live and play.

I enjoy living in "the sticks" and have adjusted to the fuel price increase by combining trips.

[Big Mo]

Northeast Chatham would seem to be an especially desirable area for folks working at UNC-CH.   Lower house prices and lower taxes and [still!] a very reasonable commute.  I saw this happen in and around Lexington KY as prices and taxes (and to some extent fuel costs) increased in the 70s and 80s ....

Now as for longer trips to RTP and Raleigh, etc ....

But, Analyst, as the history of urbanization and growth has shown over centuries, humans form communites in ways that take into account the economics and technologies of the day and the times.  Ahhhh, yes!   Those wonderful old trollies .....   

[VAHeel]

Yeah, even with gas at 4-5 dollars a gallon, there are still parts of chatham that are desirable commutes to CH, RTP, Raleigh, or Greensboro.  I don't think this will be enough to permanently derail our growth.

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