How's that Growth Going?

[snowcamper]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22827062/

By Eric Watson, NBC17 Reporter
PITSBORO, N.C. -- Projected growth in Pittsboro is not in sync with actual growth according to Pittsboro Town Manager William Terry.  A slump in the housing market is making it difficult to attract new businesses and industries to Pittsboro because people are holding onto their money, said Terry.
"I think everyone is optimistic that these things go up and down and housing goes down. I think folks are trying to make the optimal decision on when it is time to start a retail or commercial business in this area or any area," Terry said.

Before business owners move to areas like Pittsboro, they want to make sure there are enough people to do business with. But when business owners see that fewer people are moving into the area, they must decide if setting up shop in such areas will generate enough money to stay afloat.
Chatham County Economic Development President Dianne Reid said even thought Pittsboro is growing, the town is not growing the way it was predicted to grow before the housing market started to become unstable.
"The rate of growth with housing units has declined, so we're continuing to grow but not at the pace we set earlier in this decade," Reid said.
Some businesses have already moved out of Pittsboro. Large retail giants like Sears used to have an appliance store in Pittsboro for several years but moved out last month. A representative for the national appliance chain said the story could not make any serious money to stay in business in Pittsboro. So now the location of what used to be Sears is currently a thrift shop.

Lowes Home Improvement Store is now the largest store in Pittsboro and has been around for just over a year. Both local managers and corporate managers would not comment on whether or not the store is meeting earning expectations. Neither would they comment on the future of the stores existence in Pittsboro.

But there may be hope for Pittsboro's economy -- Reid is working with U.N.C. business school to come up with a plan to not only keep current businesses afloat, but also bring in new businesses and industries to the area.

Yeah right.  That's why Reid came to Pittsboro with her Coalitionista and Pittsboro Together backers to speak out against business (Pittsboro Place) at public hearings.  Finally the folks in Chatham County are starting to understand and see the Coalition and Pittsboro Together in their true colors.  They don't want business in Chatham County except for Arts, The General Store Cafe, The Marketplace, and Estyl's Bio-Diesel company.  Period.  None of which create their so called "high paying jobs" or any significant tax base.

As soon as we run the Coalitionista backed politicians (BOC) out of office, we need to send Reid back to Orange County.

I remember during the land transfer tax discussion that Mr. Lucier got on this board and told us "conservative" "naysayers" that there were no reasons to believe that growth was going to slow, and that we should just shut-up and get with the program.

The above post was posted almost 2 years ago.

How's all of that "growth" working out for us now?

[paul_black]

The growth projections were done using an average out 25 years.  To point to any given year and say, "see!" is not how the projections work.  Recessions come and go (the same kind of, "see!" happened in the early 1990's recession and the tech bubble burst), but over the course of the entire time period, the lows and highs will usually wash out.

The growth curves used to forecast were based on real growth that occurred in comparable places--New Light and Wake Forest Townships in North Wake and the Townships in West Johnston County near the I-40/NC 42 Interchange (the Cleveland School Area) from 1980 to 2000.

[snowcamper]

The problem with your argument is that the CC's were going to use the LTT to fund the immediate and operational needs of the schools, not the needs 25 years hence.  They were budgeting presently based on an average that may very well be realized over 25 years, but on which you can not rely for the short-run needs.

Recessions do happen, and the Land Transfer Tax does not do well during them... further crimping the county's budget and leading to pleas for "we need higher taxes" during the bad times.

A traditional property tax sees very little fluctuation in revenue, even during recessions.

The "dumb masses" dodged yet another bullet thrown their way by the "educated elite" by voting against yet one more progressive boondoggle.

[NC YIPPIE]

BTW, I would think this also means that the projections for developments like Briar Chapel paying for themselves (as far as their collective impact on local services versus property taxes) has also been pushed forward far into the future. It would be interesting to see the revised numbers.

[snowcamper]

Very few people are living in Briar Chapel, but the developers/builders are still paying property taxes... the schools should be ahead.

[BarrettP]

As a Realtor and a small business owner, I can tell you that growth everywhere, not just Chatham, has slowed.  I speak with my counterparts in other parts of the Triangle, North Carolina, and the Country.  They are all hurting.  In fact many of my counterparts have already closed their business.

One concern I have is the issue I am seeing regarding small local business and growth is that new county rules and ordinances can be seen as business and growth unfriendly.  New county rules and ordinances have exacerbated the problem these folks are experiencing during this economy.  Here are a couple of examples:

I have an older gentleman who is suffering from advanced prostate cancer.  He has been laid off his job and needs to make some repairs to his home and pay off some medical bills.  He owns a little over 7 acres of land and came to me to try and sell 5 of those acres.  In order for him to be able to subdivide those 5 acres out and obtain a perk site, the county government requires him to navigate through a new process that is both somewhat complex and cost prohibitive, especially to someone on a low fixed income.  I understand the reasons for the new county rules and ordinances I’m just saying that there area always going to be consequences and unfortunately we are hurting some of the very people we need to be looking out for.

My other client is a school for special children that is out of state and had the land donated to them.  They came to me to sell.  Not only have we fought the economy, but when we did find a buyer who wanted to build a private house on the more than 17 acres we ran into the new ordinances and erosion control rules.  Basically if you disturb more than 25,000 square feet of land you have to have an engineer do an erosion control plan that must be submitted to the county for approval along with the required fees.  In this particular parcels case, you will disturb more than 25,000 sq. ft. just putting in the driveway.  And while I commend the county government and personnel for their professionalism and courtesy when speaking to perspective buyers of the property, quite honestly many buyers were scared off.  I finally did find a buyer for the property and it will close this month so the school can get their needed money.

Another client is a family selling inherited land.  We had a local builder make an offer.  His plans were to subdivide the 21+ acres into 5 lots and build spec houses on, creating local jobs.  When the builder went to the county to inquire about subdividing the land, he was told in order to get approval he would have to pay to run county water to and around the property, even though the builder planned to use well and septic.  The cost to run the water made the project unprofitable for 5 lots.

My point is that here in Chatham we are now facing double jeopardy with regard to growth and business.  We are facing the issues of the economy and the new ordinances which by their design can also deter growth and business.
Thanks and Happy New Year!
Barrett Powell

[Silk_Hope]

This county does not want ANY growth, eventually they will shoot themselves in the foot from over regulation.

[NC YIPPIE]

Boo!

Did that work? Sounded kind of similar.

[truth]

Barrett Powell,
I wish the county government could take credit for decrease in growth due to its rational regulation to protect the quality of life in Chatham County.  You should have noticed that Alan Greenspan's housing bubble has collapsed nationally, with the implosion of the commercial and investment banking community.  Our respectable bank Wachovia got bought by our disrespected First Union who then changed their name to Wachovia and then went on a mortgage lending bender and ended up owned by Wells Fargo.  I think the Wall Street investment bankers who collapsed the banking sector are far more responsible for the present state of the real estate market here than any regulation passed by our local government in the last four years to protect the quality of life for all of us who live here have done.  The only good thing is that the economic collapse has allowed us to get our residential development regulations in order to end the Residential Developer's Paradise of the Bunkey years.  It is clear now that you can not build and economy on residential development alone. Just ask the folks in Las Vegas.

It's the collapse of the banking system that has been the cause the greatest pain for the United States and those who live in Chatham County and wish to market their property.

Truth

[chrstnhsbndfthr]

Barrett Powell,
I wish the county government could take credit for decrease in growth due to its rational regulation

I wish county government could be accused of ANYTHING rational.  Alas, it cannot.

[NativeSon]

Truth,
You and your guys are starting to make Bunkey look good! Oh, by the way; Why don't you through a little blame for something Bush's way?

[Silk_Hope]

As a Realtor and a small business owner, I can tell you that growth everywhere, not just Chatham, has slowed.  I speak with my counterparts in other parts of the Triangle, North Carolina, and the Country.  They are all hurting.  In fact many of my counterparts have already closed their business.

One concern I have is the issue I am seeing regarding small local business and growth is that new county rules and ordinances can be seen as business and growth unfriendly.  New county rules and ordinances have exacerbated the problem these folks are experiencing during this economy.  Here are a couple of examples:

I have an older gentleman who is suffering from advanced prostate cancer.  He has been laid off his job and needs to make some repairs to his home and pay off some medical bills.  He owns a little over 7 acres of land and came to me to try and sell 5 of those acres.  In order for him to be able to subdivide those 5 acres out and obtain a perk site, the county government requires him to navigate through a new process that is both somewhat complex and cost prohibitive, especially to someone on a low fixed income.  I understand the reasons for the new county rules and ordinances I’m just saying that there area always going to be consequences and unfortunately we are hurting some of the very people we need to be looking out for.

My other client is a school for special children that is out of state and had the land donated to them.  They came to me to sell.  Not only have we fought the economy, but when we did find a buyer who wanted to build a private house on the more than 17 acres we ran into the new ordinances and erosion control rules.  Basically if you disturb more than 25,000 square feet of land you have to have an engineer do an erosion control plan that must be submitted to the county for approval along with the required fees.  In this particular parcels case, you will disturb more than 25,000 sq. ft. just putting in the driveway.  And while I commend the county government and personnel for their professionalism and courtesy when speaking to perspective buyers of the property, quite honestly many buyers were scared off.  I finally did find a buyer for the property and it will close this month so the school can get their needed money.

Another client is a family selling inherited land.  We had a local builder make an offer.  His plans were to subdivide the 21+ acres into 5 lots and build spec houses on, creating local jobs.  When the builder went to the county to inquire about subdividing the land, he was told in order to get approval he would have to pay to run county water to and around the property, even though the builder planned to use well and septic.  The cost to run the water made the project unprofitable for 5 lots.

My point is that here in Chatham we are now facing double jeopardy with regard to growth and business.  We are facing the issues of the economy and the new ordinances which by their design can also deter growth and business.
Thanks and Happy New Year!
Barrett Powell

And people wonder why many structures, additions or modifications to houses or buildings are done without permits.

[WolfpackFan]

Truth is correct in a way, but he either does not recognized the county commissioners impact or is unwilling to admit it.

We all know that Bush and the evil republicans are to blame for our current national problems.  But the problem at the local level is being pushed farther by the county commissioners.  People are willing to jump through more hoops when things are going good, they tend to back off when things are tough.

You take a tough economy, even tougher regulations, and people stay home with their money.

[truth]

As I think back on the Bunkey's Residential Developers Paradise in Chatham County I'm reminded of Tommy Emerson's invitation to vote him and the rest of Bunkey's crew out of office if the voters did not like their policies of totally uncontrolled residential growth.  The land rush between the defeat of Bunkey and Crew in May of 2006 and when they left office in December demonstrated their commitment to uncontrolled residential development. I have not gone back to look at how many of Bunkey's land rush approved developments are now in bankruptcy.  Those that are in bankruptcy have nothing to do with the majority who took office in December 2006 or their policies implemented thereafter. 

As you remember Lucier, Vanderbect and Thompson, especially much to the chagrin of Emerson, where elected by overwhelming majorities in the May primary of 2006 and those who had opponents won substantially in November 2006. 

Once in office the new majority proceeded to implement the policies on which they were elected.  Of note was the first ethics policy for the Chatham Board of Commissioners ever passed. They acted to encourage real economic development, rational residential development, strong support for public education and protection of the watershed. Though the job is not complete the substantial majority that put them in office should be do so again in 2010 so that they can complete the job they were elected to do in 2006.

One could argue that the moratorium on massive residential development that was implemented between early 2007 to about June 2008 in Chatham saved some of our more risk taking residential developers from unfortunate investment at the peak of housing bubble from bankruptcy in the ensuring Reagan/Gramm/Bush/Cheney economic collapse of September 2008.  Just think of the number of developers in that 18 month period that would entered the residential development abyss if they could have during the moratorium on large scale residential development in Chatham. The Durham-Orange-Chatham builders association owe the county commissioners a great debt of thanks for protecting them from their unlimited financial avarice.

I don't have a complete list of developers who have gone  bankrupt in Chatham that were approved under Bunkey's and crews policies of unlimited residential development but the Parks at the Meadows come to mind and the Lysta Road and Jack Bennett Rd development that eroded the hilly landscape and polluted local streams with silt from their sites. In invite readers to add to this list of bankrupt developers.

Again the development community should thank the commissioners for protecting them from themselves and the electorate that put them in office should thank them for delivering on they election promises and protecting the quality of life in all of Chatham County.

Though Bunkey is gone Chatham is always three votes away from a majority on the Board of Commissioners that could return Chatham to Bunkey's Developer Paradise of 2002-2006.

We have been there before and never want to be there again. 

[chrstnhsbndfthr]

*Sniff*

Nope, doesn't pass the test.  Perhaps try a less fanatical rewrite.

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